Phase 1

Model Before You Move

Conservative (8–12%): baseline scenario
Moderate (20–25%): where the sweet spot lives
Aggressive (30%+): worst-case churn vs best-case ARR
A/B test with new signups first

−22%

churn when A/B testing price before full rollout

Phase 2

The Grandfathering Decision

Permanent: under 50 customers, max trust
Time-limited (12–24 mo): recommended for most
Feature-gated: natural upgrade path
Contractual: cleanest for annual deals

−28%

churn with any grandfathering policy vs no policy

Phase 3

The Communication Playbook

Day −30: announcement + in-app banner
Day −14: auto-renewal alert with new amount
Day −7: value recap email + in-app
Day 0: confirmation and thank you

−21%

churn with 30-day notice vs shorter windows

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