AI Feature Economics
Building vs. Validating an AI Feature
Build first
$50K – $250K
4 months of engineering, product, and design. Plus the activation optimization that got paused and the retention loop you were testing.
LLM integration + new UI surface
New pipeline, testing, phased rollout
Opportunity cost of paused roadmap
Activation and retention work deferred
No validation of whether users will use it
6% adoption is the typical outcome
Validate first
$5K – $10K
4 weeks of structured research. 20–40 user interviews, prototype testing, competitive analysis. Answer the question before committing engineering.
20–40 user interviews with active users
Workflow walkthrough, pain mapping, concept test
Lightweight prototype test (10 users)
Figma or Wizard of Oz — surfaces fit problems
Competitive usage analysis
Does the competitor's users actually use it?
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